Saying Google's dead because Google Music is a bad idea?

With CD sales tanking, what is the major labels’ plan?

We’ve got to go to subscription. It’s the only model that works. Getting a little from a lot. Hell, people don’t have a problem with buying Netflix subscriptions now, even though so much is unavailable for streaming.

Uh, when home movies first became possible with the advent of VHS/Beta, movie studios charged arm-and-leg prices for home copies of the movies. Almost immediately, the video rental business came about, offering a for-profit lending library to a nascent industry. Meanwhile, "home music" had already been around for 70 years or so, and consumers were accustomed to building a music library, not renting one.

That switch isn't any easier to flip just because another 30 years have passed. There's no barrier to entry when you ask people to rent movies, which is why Netflix can transition from one form of movie renting to another without skipping a beat. But consumers are used to owning music or getting it for (ad-supported) free. Otherwise, Napster (corporate version) would be the market leader in streaming music, not Pandora.

You can't undo generations of retail conditioning just by waving a magic "it's on the internet" wand. Right, Pets.com? You have to fill a specific niche that consumers haven't had before. Right now, too many sites are offering streaming at no charge, in accordance with the radio business model. Milk's free. Ain't no way you're going to get rich renting cows.

Cf. Hulu Plus. That's how powerful entrenched consumer attitudes are. "I'll rent movies and entire seasons of TV shows... but I'm not so sure about this paying money for TV episodes mularky." Until Hulu makes itself feel like (and become a replacement for) basic cable, they'll face the same barrier any music rental service does.